Nicola Spurling

n.spurling@lancaster.ac.uk

All Change? The future of travel demand

By Nicola Spurling (Commissioner, National Commission on Travel Demand)

In 2017-2018 I served as a consulting sociologist in my role as Commissioner on the first inquiry of the National Commission on Travel Demand. (nb. I also served in this role on the second inquiry 2018-2019).

The First Report, alongside the Permanent Secretary of the Department for Transport’s response are publicly available.

Funded as part of the Research Council UK DEMAND Centre (Dynamics of Energy, Mobility and Demand) the Commission brought together the state of the art in understanding how travel demand is changing and may change in the future, recognising controversies that exist over current forecasting practice, not least due to ongoing increases in climate change emissions (but also their role in poor air quality and obesity).

The initiative was chaired by Greg Marsden (Professor of Transport Governance, Leeds Uni). I served as commissioner alongside Elaine Seagriff (previously Head of Policy and Strategy for Transport for London), Peter Jones OBE (Professor of Transport and Sustainable Development, UCL), and John Dales (previously Chair of the Transport Planning Society and a Traffic Engineer, Transport Planner and Urban Designer).

In the First Report, we demonstrate that the assumptions, developed during decades of car ownership, and which have underpinned understandings of travel demand growth are now limited and sometimes wrong.

The Report drew on twenty eight written submissions that were received from twenty seven different individuals and groups in response to a call for evidence. Across the course of the six evidence sessions, 58 people from 39 different organisations participated either through presentations or participation in the discussions with the panel of commissioners.

In 2018-2019 I continued to serve on the Commission, co-authoring the Second Report on Shared Mobility.


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